I have caught some mild grief from more than one gardener friend for championing the claims of the weather-folk as if they could possibly be right that the dry cycle will soon be broken.
I have to say, I had no deep knowledge until now of the details of WHAT could be bringing about these large-scale weather patterns, but only the Charlie Brown Sincerity Test hope and faith.
I've been looking for just such a bigger picture explanation so Lucy would quit laughing at me, and just now I found it on AccuWeather. The following is paraphrased from that site.
Explosive weather setup could ignite derecho as holiday winds down
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
So the global-scale source of the expected stormy period ahead has to do with a change in the jetstream such that recurrent storm waves washing over us are much more likely in near-future than the embedded and enduring drought we are soon to see the end of. He said.
Starting early next week in the Dakotas (start watching the radar on Monday), disturbances will develop along the edge of this cold-air / hot-air boundary and create storm systems that can spawn derechos "into the Appalachians. This article seems to support the notion we might see one next week. PAY ATTENTION!
So any one place in our area could get from 1-3" (or none at all; or up to 6" depending on your location vs the storm paths that train over our area.
"In many cases, the storms may only impact locations for a few hours on a particular day but could affect some communities on a daily basis"
So will the Lords of the Air please roll the dice and tell me: Can I, in this one very particular and specific 26 acre parcel, put away the garden hose that sucks precious groundwater out of our uncertain well? Should we bring in the flotsam off the porches in an excess of caution? Tie down the cat? Build an ARK?
We will reconvene when the storm (or lack thereof) has passed.
I hope you’re right but my observation has been that systems developed so far north generally track across the Ohio valley and stay well to our north. I would love to see an end to this dry pattern but I’m doubtful that this will do it. Hope I’m wrong.